Evidential basis for assessment on protest of 10 November 2023

Freedom of information request reference no: 01.FOI.23.034650

I note you seek access to the following information:

This is in request for information based on a media briefing given by DAC Laurence Taylor on Friday 10 November 2023 in regards to protests and counter-protests organised for the following day; Armistice Day, Saturday 11 November 2023.

DAC Taylor made the following comments regarding counter-protesters, characterised in the press as far right/nationalist the day before Armistice Day:

1. [counter protesters would] "not cause serious disorder by themselves"

2. "I don't anticipate there'll be any disorder from that group - the disorder will come from a pro-Palestinian group going into that area whilst they are there if they are there.

3. "If a counter protest is within that Whitehall footprint, I will be allowing that."

The events of the day of protest on Saturday 11 November 2023 showed that these assessments particularly pertaining to point 1 and 2 were not accurate even according to the met itself.

I want to know the following:

- What was the evidential basis for the Met's/DAC Laurence Taylor's claim on Friday 10 November 2023 that counter- protestors would not cause serious disorder by themselves'?

- Do you have any data that supported that assessment?

- Have the Met Police conducted a review?

- If a review has been conducted- what were the findings?

- Has the Met Police changed its strategies or approach to far right/nationalists protests due to the events of Saturday 11 November 2023?

Decision

I have today decided to disclose some of the requested information. Some data has been withheld as it is exempt from disclosure and therefore this response serves as a Refusal Notice under Section 17 of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (the Act) by virtue of the following exemptions:

Section 31(1)(a) - Law Enforcement

Reason for decision

- Do you have any data that supported that assessment?

The assessment upon which Deputy Assistant Commissioner Taylor’s statement was made, was based on intelligence held by the MPS.

Section 31(1)(a)&(b) - Law Enforcement - I have claimed this exemption in that the release and publication of the intelligence held in connection with the protests of the 11 November 2023, would provide persons intent on committing crime and/or evading detection by police at future events, with information that would assist them in this endeavour. Release of this information would also be likely to dissuade parties that cooperate and/or or assist the police, from doing so in the future.

The MPS has a statutory role in society to prevent and detect crime and apprehend persons that commit criminal offences. To do so, the MPS deploys a range of tactics. These tactics are reliant on the intelligence it receives and the policing plan it develops to ensure persons attending events can exercise their rights safely and those that commit offences can be apprehended. Should the MPS disclose the intelligence it has obtained in connection with the protests of the 11 November 2023, this would be likely to have four effects.

1. Firstly, the offender would be better informed having obtained sensitive information about police intelligence. This would include knowledge of the nature of intelligence held, its scope, breadth and any specific information that was evaluated by the MPS when creating their policing plan. A better informed offender would therefore be more equipped and able to commit offences.

2. Secondly a better informed and equipped offender would be more confident and capable to commit offences which would increase the likelihood of offences being committed.

3. Thirdly, an informed and confident offender would be more able and likely to avoid detection by police.

4. Lastly, a more successful offender would increase the risk to the public at events policed by the MPS.

More broadly, should the MPS release its intelligence into the public domain, those that either provide information to police and/or cooperate with police, would be likely to be dissuaded from doing so in the future. This would occur as those that provide information/cooperate with police, would hold no reasonable expectation that this type of information would be shared by police, irrespective of whether the sharing was done in an attributable or non-attributable way. This would be likely to harm the reputation of the MPS as an organisation that treats operationally sensitive information confidentially. Ultimately the public release of any information that would be likely to assist the offender to commit offences and/or would adversely affect the ability of the MPS to prevent crime, is unlikely to be in the public interest.

Having considered your request, I accept that there is a public interest inherent in transparency when any request is made for police information. There is also, in the context of this request, a clear public interest favouring release given the public attention and debate that has taken place in respect of the policing of the protests of the 11 November 2023. Release of the intelligence held by the MPS prior to developing its policing plan for the weekend of the 11 and 12 November 2023, would accordingly facilitate informed public debate.

The public interest favouring release must be balanced against any associated risk and/or prejudice that would be caused through disclosure. Having carefully considered this, I have found that the public release of the Met’s intelligence held in connection with the protests of 11 November 2023, would be likely to have two important effects. Firstly disclosure would inform the offender, increasing the likelihood of them successfully committing offences and avoiding police detection at future events. Secondly disclosure would be likely to dissuade those that either provide information to police and/or cooperate with police from doing so, as they would hold no reasonable expectation that this type of information would be shared publicly by police. Having carefully weighed up the competing public interest factors, I have found that the balance of the public interest rests with withholding information would be likely to assist the offender to commit offences and/or would adversely affect the ability of the MPS to prevent and detect crime. For this reason, I have refused to disclose the information held in respect of this part of your request for information.

Disclosure

- What was the evidential basis for the Met's/DAC Laurence Taylor's claim on Friday 10 November 2023 that counter- protestors would not 'cause serious disorder by themselves'?

The MPS assesses all intelligence (including engagement with protest groups) relating to protests on a continuous basis and this informs decision-making alongside professional experience and training.

- Have the Met Police conducted a review?
- If a review has been conducted- what were the findings?

The MPS has not conducted a formal review. As with all events, we conducted an immediate verbal debrief to assess any immediate or critical learning. Additionally, the debrief from the day will inform future operations.

- Has the Met Police changed its strategies or approach to far right/nationalists protests due to the events of Saturday 11 November 2023?

No. Every protest and/or event is treated on its own merits based on an assessment of the specific circumstances of each protest/event.

DUTY TO ADVISE AND ASSIST
Under Section 16 of the Act, there is a duty to advise and assist those that have made, or intend to make, a request for information. In accordance with this duty, I can confirm that the MPS publishes information about various types of crime on its website. I have provided a link to this information below.

MPS Website: Stats and Data

It may also assist you to note that the MPS proactively publishes all disclosures made in response to requests made under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 on its Publication Scheme. I have provided a link to this section of the MPS website below.

MPS Website: Publication Scheme

The MPS Publication Scheme can be searched using keywords and may accordingly hold other information that is of interest to you.